As the semiconductor supply shortage continues, there is an outlook that the global semiconductor industry will increase wafer production capacity this year, and attention is focused on whether this will be able to resolve the supply shortage.





According to semiconductor market research firm IC Insights on the 21st (local time), wafer production capacity based on 8-inch (200mm equivalent) wafers in 2022 is expected to increase by 8.7% year-on-year, the highest ever. It is expected to be in the 8% range, following the 8.5% growth rate last year, driven by the surge in semiconductor demand. Additionally, it was observed that the addition of 10 new fabs will have an impact on growth.

IC Insights explained that “the volatility of the IC industry is affected by large fluctuations in annual wafer input,” and that in the semiconductor industry, the increase and decrease of wafer production capacity changes depending on market conditions, but does not show dramatic fluctuations.

In fact, looking at the year-on-year increase/decrease rate of wafer production capacity from 2016 to 2021, the range was 4~8.5%, but the increase/decrease rate of wafer input showed a wide range of -4.7~19%, showing greater volatility.





Looking at changes in global wafer production capacity, the semiconductor industry experienced its first net loss in 2002, and in 2009, semiconductor industry volume plunged by a record-breaking -6%.

This was immediately followed by the 2001 dot-com bubble-induced U.S. stock market crash and the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis-induced global economic slowdown, which also had repercussions on the semiconductor industry, resulting in a decline in facility investment and a market slump. In addition, the semiconductor market temporarily experienced a slump in 2009 as many fabs withdrew from wafers smaller than 8 inches (200 mm).

According to IC Insights, a total of 92 wafer fabs were closed or repurposed between 2009 and 2017, of which 150mm accounted for 41%, 200mm accounted for 26%, and 125mm or smaller accounted for 23%.

“The 8.7% increase in semiconductor industry capacity forecast for 2022 will be driven by the addition of 10 new 12-inch (300mm) wafer fabs,” IC Insights said. The largest capacity increases are expected to come from large-scale new memory fabs by SK Hynix and Winbond, as well as three new fabs by TSMC in Taiwan and China.

Other facilities include Silan's fab for power discretes and sensors, Texas Instruments' RFab2 facility for analog devices, fabs from ST and Tower for mixed-signal, power, RF and foundry, and SMIC's new fab for foundry, along with a CR microfab for power semiconductors.

“Despite inflationary pressures and ongoing supply chain challenges, semiconductor demand remains robust,” IC Insights said. “We forecast semiconductor unit shipments to increase 9.2% this year.”

Additionally, it forecasted that “robust demand will maintain high levels, pushing global capacity utilization to 93% in 2022, even as 10 new wafer fabs come online.”