The COVID-19 Pandemic Accelerates Global Digitalization
Fab investment increases as semiconductor demand surges
12-inch Fab Investments Expected to Peak in 2023 Fab investment is expected to surge this year due to the acceleration of global digitalization caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, and this trend is expected to continue through 2021.
According to the '300mm Fab Outlook Report' released on the 5th by the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI), the investment in 300mm (12-inch) fabs is expected to increase by 13% this year compared to 2019, breaking the previous record set in 2018, and increasing to 20% in 2023.
▲ 300mm fab investment scale increase and decrease trend [Graph = SEMI]
In addition to COVID-19, fab investment is expected to continue to grow due to increased demand for cloud services, servers, PCs, games, and healthcare technologies. In particular, technological advancements such as 5G, AI, IoT, autonomous driving, and machine learning are increasing large-scale data, which is spurring investment in the semiconductor sector that processes and stores this data.
Semiconductor fab investment is expected to continue to grow through 2021, with a 13% increase this year compared to the previous year and a 4% increase in 2021. While a slight 2% decline is expected in 2022, fab investment is expected to increase 20% to around $70 billion in 2023, the largest ever.
SEMI’s 300mm Fab Outlook report projects that at least 34 new 300mm fabs will be built between this year and 2024. Approximately $1.8 million will be invested in monthly fab capacity during this period, pushing monthly wafer capacity to over 7 million in 2024.
Eleven of the new fabs will be built in Taiwan and eight in China, accounting for half of all new fabs. By 2024, there will be 161 300mm fabs worldwide.
▲ Trend of 300mm fab growth by region [Graph = SEMI]
China is a region that is rapidly increasing its share of 300mm fab capacity, expected to increase from 8% in 2015 to 20% (monthly production of 1.5 million units) in 2024.
Non-Chinese companies will drive this growth, but Chinese state-owned semiconductor companies are also accelerating their investment in capacity. The share of domestic fab capacity by Chinese state-owned semiconductor companies is expected to increase from about 43% this year to 50% in 2022 and 60% in 2024.
Japan's share of 300mm wafer production is expected to continue to decline from 19% in 2015 to 12% in 2024. North America's share is also expected to drop from 13% in 2015 to 10% in 2024.
Our country is expected to see the largest investment in 300mm fabs, with an investment of approximately $15-19 billion expected between this year and 2024. Taiwan is expected to follow with an investment of approximately $14-17 billion, and China with $11-13 billion.
Regions that have been relatively small in fab investment are expected to see steep increases in investment between this year and 2024. Europe and the Middle East will see a 164% increase, Southeast Asia will see a 59% increase, North America will see a 35% increase, and Japan will see a 20% increase.
◇ Fab investment focused on memory and power semiconductors Most of the increase in 300mm fab investment is expected to come from the memory sector. Investment in 300mm memory fabs is expected to grow in the high single digits annually from this year through 2023, and to grow by about 10% in 2024.
While 300mm fab investments in DRAM and 3D NAND are expected to show different trends each year, investments in logic and MPU are expected to grow steadily from this year to 2023.
Investments in power semiconductors are expected to grow by about 200% in 2021 and reach double-digit growth in 2022 and 2023.
