한국경제인협회가 매출액 기준 600대 기업을 대상으로 기업경기실사지수(Business Survey Index)를 조사한 결과, 가전 등 소비재 수요 부진과 중국의 D램 생산능력 확대로 반도체 가격이 하락할 것으로 전망되며, 반도체 등 전자 및 통신장비의 경기 심리가 위축됐다.
▲ Manufacturing Industry Sub-Industry December Outlook BSI
Weak demand for consumer goods such as home appliances and the impact of China's expanded DRAM production
Semiconductor prices are expected to fall due to sluggish demand for consumer goods such as home appliances and China's expansion of DRAM production capacity, and business sentiment for electronic and communications equipment such as semiconductors has weakened.
According to the Business Survey Index survey conducted by the Korea Economic Association targeting the top 600 companies in terms of sales, the BSI forecast for December 2024 was 97.3.
The BSI outlook has been below the baseline of 100 for 33 consecutive months since it recorded 99.1 in April 2022, the longest streak of slump since the Business Survey (BSI) began in January 1975.
The December economic outlook was mixed across industries. The manufacturing BSI recorded 89.9, falling below 90 for the first time in five months since July of this year (88.5).
The Korea Economic Research Institute said that the manufacturing industry sentiment is worsening, with the domestic supply of manufactured products decreasing for five consecutive quarters due to the prolonged domestic economic slowdown.
Electronic and communications equipment including semiconductors (94.1) also fell below the baseline.
It was analyzed that economic sentiment was weakened as semiconductor prices are expected to fall due to sluggish demand for consumer goods such as home appliances and China's expansion of DRAM production capacity.
Among the manufacturing sub-industries (total of 10), △Automobiles and other transportation equipment (105.7) was the only one to show a favorable outlook.
Excluding the baseline of 100, the remaining seven industries are expected to see a worsening business environment: △Food, Beverage and Tobacco (100.0); △Pharmaceuticals (100.0); △Wood, Furniture and Paper (66.7); △Textiles, Clothing and Leather and Footwear (78.6); △Non-Metallic Materials and Products (78.6); △Petroleum Refining and Chemicals (83.3); △Metals and Metal Processing Products (83.3); △Electronics and Communication Equipment (94.1); △General and Precision Machinery and Equipment (94.1).
Among the non-manufacturing detailed industries (total of 7), the following showed favorable outlook: △Electricity, Gas, and Water (126.3); △Leisure, Accommodation, and Dining Out (123.1); △Professional, Scientific, Technical, and Business Support Services (116.7); and △Transportation and Warehouse (108.7). Excluding retail (100), which is above the baseline of 100, two industries, including information and communication and construction, are expected to see a deterioration in business conditions.
Lee Sang-ho, head of the Korea Economic Research Institute’s Economic and Industrial Affairs Division, expressed concern, saying, “As external risks increase and domestic demand slowdown overlap, 12 out of 17 domestic industries saw their operating profits decline in the third quarter of this year.” He added, “It appears that our companies have reached their limits due to their deteriorating business performance.”
