▲Comparison of data traffic in 2020 and 2040 (Source: BITSUBISHI Comprehensive Research Institute)
5G penetration rate target of 80% by 2027, current level of 30-40%
Future data demand ↑, including generative AI, to increase 348 times by 2040
Japan has begun to build 5G infrastructure in earnest as demand for future data, including generative AI, is rapidly increasing.
According to KOTRA's overseas market news, on May 27, the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications presented new telecommunications network goals to four major companies, including NTT Docomo.
According to this, the plan is to increase the urban penetration rate of the 5G frequency 'Sub 6 (3.7 GHz band)' to 80% by 2027, and the current penetration rate appears to be around 30-40%.
According to data analyzed by KOTRA Osaka Trade Center in Japan, Japan's average monthly data circulation has increased approximately 13-fold over the past 10 years. As communication volume rapidly increases in the future due to the spread of artificial intelligence (AI), it is expected that it will be difficult for the current mobile communication network to handle this amount of data usage.
Regarding this, Mitsubishi Research Institute predicted that the amount of data distributed will increase explosively by 2040 due to the spread of new technologies such as generative AI, increasing 348 times compared to 2020.
Meanwhile, most of the 5G services launched since 2020 are low-midband services that reuse existing LTE bands for 5G, and the number of sub-6 base stations is 35,311, indicating an infrastructure maintenance rate of 3.It is known to be only 1.8%.
In particular, millimeter waves, which are ultra-high frequencies above 20 GHz, are currently only used in limited circumstances at large events or stadiums where many people gather.
Due to this situation, it was analyzed that there is a gap between the 5G penetration rate figures in Japan and the high-speed communication actually felt by Japanese people.
Accordingly, the Japanese government has held a joint meeting of relevant ministries every month since February of this year to promote infrastructure development for 5G distribution, and has come up with new infrastructure development goals for the sub-6 frequency band through public-private collaboration.
Although the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications' goals are not binding, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications is the government agency that allocates radio waves to telecommunications companies, and the four telecommunications companies plan to conduct business based on the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications' goals.
It has been reported that NTT Docomo plans to expand 5G areas by distinguishing between 'pure 5G' and '5G using 4G frequencies', and to organize base stations according to regional characteristics, focusing on areas with high data demand.
KDDI is considering doubling its 5G coverage in the metropolitan area by the end of June 2024 and expanding its collaboration with SoftBank to build 5G base stations nationwide.
SoftBank aims to improve network quality through AI-based process automation and pursue a network with an appropriate level of equipment and demand.
Rakuten Mobile plans to expand its 5G coverage in the metropolitan area (Kanto region) by up to 1.6 times by 2024.
According to the KOTRA Osaka Trade Center, “According to the Yano Research Institute, the size of the Japanese ICT market in 2023 is expected to reach 14.93 trillion yen, up 5.4% from the previous year. “As investments in digital transformation (DX) are being made, especially by large corporations, stable growth is expected in the future,” he said. “We are considering installing ultra-high-speed millimeter wave base stations at the Osaka-Kansai Expo to be held in 2025. We are also planning to hold a large-scale experiential exhibition related to the next-generation 5G communications standard (Beyond 5G), which aims for commercialization in 2030.”