The global device market is expected to be hit hard by geopolitical upheaval, high inflation, exchange rate fluctuations, and supply chain disruptions, leading to a decline in shipments. Meanwhile, the impending 5G smartphone boom is raising expectations for the future market outlook.

On the 4th, market research firm Gartner announced its global shipment forecast by device type. According to Gartner, global PC shipments are expected to decline 9.5% in 2022, with the PC market projected to experience the steepest decline of any device segment this year.

At the regional level, the EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) PC market is projected to decline by 14% in 2022 due to weak consumer PC demand. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, price increases, and product supply disruptions due to the Chinese blockade are believed to have significantly impacted consumer demand in the region.

Overall, global shipments of all devices (PCs, tablets, and mobile phones) are expected to decline by 7.6% in 2022, with Greater China and Eastern Europe, including Eurasia, expected to see double-digit declines, it noted.

Ranjit Atwal, senior director analyst at Gartner, said, “The ‘perfect storm’ of geopolitical upheaval, high inflation, currency fluctuations, and supply chain disruptions has reduced business and consumer demand for devices worldwide,” adding, “This will have the biggest impact on the PC market in 2022.”

He also said, “Consumer PC demand is expected to decline 13.1% in 2022, representing a 7.2% year-over-year decline,” and “It is expected to decline much faster than business PC demand.”

Gartner estimates that global mobile phone shipments will decline 7.1% this year, while smartphone shipments will decline 5.8% year-over-year. Among these, smartphone shipments are expected to decline by 18.3% in 2022, with Greater China taking the biggest hit regionally.

Greater China has been driving 5G phone adoption at the regional level for the past two years. However, if the Greater China 5G phone market collapses, Gartner projects that shipments will decline by 2% in 2022, after growing 65% in 2021.

“At the beginning of the year, the Greater China 5G phone market was expected to see double-digit growth,” Atwal said. “China’s zero COVID-19 policy and the resulting lockdowns have dramatically reversed this trend, with many consumers stopping purchases of non-essential items, including 5G smartphones.”

Gartner forecasts that global 5G phone shipments will reach 710 million units in 2022, a 29% increase year-over-year but lower than previous forecasts.

"The growth rate was significantly lower than the 47% growth rate projected at the beginning of the year, resulting in a decrease of 95 million units in 5G phone shipments," Artwal explained.

Demand for 5G phones is expected to grow at an even faster rate in 2023, Atwal said, adding that "a significant portion of the transition to 5G phones will be fundamental, as users primarily replace older 4G smartphones with 5G-compatible ones at the end of their life cycle."