| Smartphone sales down 2.5% in 2019, worst ever
| 5G smartphones to account for 51% of total sales in 2023
| PC shipments down 1% year-over-year, downtrend Global PC, tablet and mobile phone shipments are expected to decline slightly in 2019.
Gartner has released its 2019 global device shipment forecast.
Global shipments of devices including PCs, tablets, and mobile phones are expected to total 2.2 billion units in 2019, a 3.3% decrease from the previous year. In particular, the mobile phone market is expected to show the weakest performance among the device sectors, with a 3.8% decline.
“The mobile phone market today amounts to 1.7 billion units, down about 10 percent from 2015 when shipments totaled 1.9 billion units,” said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner. “Unless mobile phones deliver new utility, efficiency or experiences, users will not upgrade their phones, which will ultimately lengthen device replacement cycles.”
Global Device Shipments by Type, 2018-21 (Millions of Units)
<Source: Gartner (July 2019)>
The trend of lengthening mobile phone replacement cycles that began in 2018 is expected to continue in 2019. Gartner predicts that by 2023, the lifespan of high-end phones will increase from 2.6 years to 2.9 years, and that smartphone sales will decline by 2.5% in 2019, the worst decline on record.
5G Smartphones to Account for 51% of Phone Sales in 2023 Earlier this year, carriers launched 5G services in parts of the U.S., South Korea, Switzerland, Finland and the U.K., but it will take time for 5G coverage to expand beyond major cities.
Gartner predicts that 7% of global CSPs will have profitable wireless 5G services by 2022, a significant build-on to the 5G proofs of concept and commercial network deployments that took place in 2018.
In the first half of 2019, several mobile phone manufacturers released smartphones with 5G. Mobile phone makers are expected to release cheaper 5G phones in 2020 to improve slowing smartphone sales.
“In 2020, phones with 5G capabilities will account for 6% of total phone sales,” said Atwal, senior research fellow. “As 5G adoption increases, user experience improves, and prices fall, we will see explosive growth, with 5G phones accounting for 51% of phone sales by 2023.”
Apple's 5G phone hasn't been released yet
Product managers will therefore need to work to differentiate their high-end phones not just by relying on the evolution of 5G hardware, but also through application integration with other devices.
2019 PC Market Shrinks Due to Uncertain Demand Global PC shipments in the second quarter of 2019 totaled 63 million units, up 1.5% year-over-year, but PC demand in 2019 remains uncertain.
PC shipments in 2019 are expected to reach 257 million units, down 1% from 2018. “The ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China and potential taxation issues could impact the PC market this year,” said Atwal, senior research analyst.
With enterprises aggressively migrating to Windows 10 in the second quarter of 2019, Gartner analysts predict that 75% of the business PC installed base will be on Windows 10 by early 2021.
“Product managers should continue to communicate the end of Windows 7 support in 2020 to encourage the transition to Windows 10,” said Atwal, research director.
