전기차 시대 자동차 생산을 위한 문턱이 낮아져 플랫폼만 있으면 누구나 제작 가능한 지금, 미래 자동차 시장을 주도할 모빌리티 파운드리에 대해 김필수 대림대학교 교수가 이야기 한다.
In the era of electric vehicles, the threshold for automobiles has been lowered, and production is possible as long as there is a platform.
SW-led future mobility market, major manufacturers focus on foundries
For the past 130 years, the internal combustion engine has emerged as a representative means of transportation and has continued to dominate the market as an exclusive property of advanced countries.
In particular, automobiles are a fusion of up to 30,000 parts, and engines and transmissions, which are the sum of science and technology, are not technologies that can be made by just anyone; they have continued to play the role of a 'super car' that only some advanced countries possess.
However, electric vehicles have emerged as a full-fledged means of transportation since about 10 years ago, when the technological limitations of electric vehicles, which have a longer history than internal combustion engine vehicles, were overcome and the distribution of zero-emission vehicles due to global warming gases became inevitably mandatory.
Electric vehicles are the starting point now, but I am confident that in the future, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be added to establish themselves as the ultimate means of transportation for mankind.
The electric vehicle and battery industries are slowing down as a kind of 'electric vehicle chasm' that has been sluggish in electric vehicle sales since late last year spreads and expands to the global market.
This phenomenon is expected to gradually be resolved as the cost-effectiveness of electric vehicles increases compared to internal combustion engine vehicles, and the period is also likely to be shortened depending on technological perfection.
At the latest 2028-2029This means that electric vehicle sales will return to normal within a year or so.
Of course, the resistance from internal combustion engine manufacturers who have vested interests is also very strong, and a fierce battle for dominance is underway.
Of course, with Trump being elected as the US President, liquidity increased during this period.
The period may be a little delayed, but it means that the era of zero-emission vehicles will soon arrive, and the leader in this era is electric vehicles.
As the era of electric vehicles begins, various side effects are also occurring.
With more than 30% of jobs in production sites being reduced and various fields such as maintenance becoming red oceans, there is a high possibility that future jobs will be significantly reduced.
It can be said that we have the task of minimizing these various side effects while also creating new jobs and emphasizing the meaning of zero pollution.
The biggest phenomenon that has occurred with the advent of the electric vehicle era is the disappearance of car door thresholds.
In other words, anyone can transform into an electric vehicle manufacturer and emerge as a global competitor as long as they are competitive.
This is because electric vehicles can be manufactured with simple components such as batteries and motors instead of engines and transmissions, and can be manufactured with an appropriate electric vehicle platform.
The threshold for making children's toys is extremely low, as we know that they can be made with just wheels, a motor, and a battery.
As open platforms for electric vehicle manufacturing become more widespread, the barriers to entry will become lower and competition will become fiercer.
China, which started about 10 years earlier, initially had over 500 electric vehicle manufacturers, but as competition became fiercer, the number has now decreased to about 150.
As the global market, including China, becomes more competitive, it naturally becomes less competitive.As electric vehicle manufacturers are being phased out, there is a growing possibility that only about 20 will remain in the future.
Now, Chinese electric vehicles and batteries are dominating the global market and gradually increasing their market share, and countries such as the US and Europe are using various methods to block them, such as imposing high taxes.
The future automobile industry is expected to experience significant market fluctuations as it expands into a mobility industry, transforming from being the exclusive domain of existing automakers to a market that anyone can enter, centered around electric vehicles.
This is because it will be a so-called ‘mobility foundry’ or ‘electric vehicle foundry.’
I have mentioned this in various columns and broadcasts since 7-8 years ago, and I have often mentioned it as a new concept that has emerged as the future mobility industry becomes more active.
Now the market is opening up in earnest.
The part about Hyundai Motor Company mentioning an ‘autonomous driving foundry’ about two months ago is in the same context.
The reason for signing an agreement with Waymo, a subsidiary of Google and a pure global autonomous driving technology company, can be said to be a joint project related to autonomous vehicles, but it can be said that the strong aspect here is to supply the desired vehicles through the autonomous driving foundry mentioned above.
In other words, Waymo implements autonomous driving algorithms with the best technology, but does not manufacture the autonomous vehicles that move them directly; instead, it outsources the production.
Contract manufacturing is not something that anyone can do, but it requires advanced know-how to provide perfect solutions through various implementations such as lidar sensors, radar sensors, and cameras based on electric vehicles.
The same goes for BYD. It is already believed that the electric vehicle foundry for this is a system that provides not only simple LFP batteries to KGM and others, but also a significant portion of the foundry. There is also talk that BYD is providing some for testing purposes to Toyota and others, who are already late in the electric vehicle market.
The representative model is Taiwan's Foxconn. Foxconn, which already manufactures and supplies hardware for Apple's iPhones, is a representative company that is working towards the goal of subcontracting production of the Apple Car, which Apple has been working on for the past nine years.
Of course, Apple announced earlier this year that it would give up on producing the Apple Car, but as it became difficult to produce results that would be comparable to the expected return on investment, it would be right to judge it as a postponement rather than an abandonment by first investing in the urgent production of an artificial intelligence phone.
Apple Car was aimed at becoming a Level 4 autonomous vehicle, but as the technological completion was delayed more than expected, it can be said to be an example of an investment in a priority field.
Foxconn, which also considered subcontracting hardware for the Apple Car, just like the iPhone, is currently producing about six highly finished electric vehicles, two of which are already being sold in Taiwan.
The company's exact goal is to be an electric vehicle foundry, and it has stated that it will definitely play a role if requested by Apple Car as well as other global companies.
It can be said that while it is a company that aims to be a mobility foundry, it also has the ambition to play a key role as a foundry company in the future mobility market.
In the case of Kia's PBV plant, which is under construction in Hwaseong, Gyeonggi Province, in the middle of next year, strictly speaking, it can be said that it is ready to provide foundry services at any time.
In the future mobility industry, considering the brand image, production of premium brands based on electric vehicles will naturally occupy a large area, but the mobility foundry market is also a field that can grow into a key area.
In the future mobility market where software will play a leading role, the foundry market that can absorb and operate this algorithm is expected to become a significant player.
br /> Who will lead the foundry market for various models will serve as a priority for securing a key position to take the lead in the future.