It is projected that export growth rates will slow significantly in all sectors, including electrical and electronics, in 2025 due to the economic downturn and increased protectionism.

According to the '2025 Export Outlook Survey' conducted by Monoresearch, a market research firm commissioned by the Korea Economic Association (hereafter referred to as the Korea Economic Association), targeting 12 major export industries among the top 1,000 companies in terms of sales (150 companies responded), the responding companies predicted that exports in 2025 would only increase by 1.4% compared to this year.

Looking at the export growth rate forecast for 2025 by industry, the industries that are increasing are: △Biohealth 5.3% △General machinery 2.1% △Petrochemicals/petroleum products 1.8% △Electrical and electronics 1.5% △Ships 1.3%, while the industries that are decreasing are: △Automobiles/parts -1.4% △Steel -0.3%.

Companies that forecasted that exports in 2025 would decrease compared to this year pointed to the following as the main factors for the slowdown in exports: △sluggish economy in major export destinations (39.7%), △strengthening protectionism such as tariff burden (30.2%), and △weakened price competitiveness due to rising raw material and oil prices (11.1%).

Companies that forecasted that exports in 2025 would increase compared to 2024 cited the following factors: △Strengthening product competitiveness, such as new product development (27.6%), △Increased price competitiveness due to the weak won (27.6%), and △Diversification of export countries (18.4%).all.

32.6% of responding companies predicted that export profitability in 2025 would worsen compared to this year, which was higher than the number of companies that predicted that it would improve (20.6%).

Nearly half (46.8%) of companies responded that next year's export profitability would be similar to this year's. The industries with the highest outlook for worsening profitability were found to be, in order, ships (50.0%), electrical and electronics (45.4%), and automobiles/parts (42.9%).

The factors that led to the deterioration of export profitability included: △increased tariff burden due to strengthened protectionism (46.9%), △decrease in export unit price due to intensified export competition (20.5%), △rise in raw material prices (12.2%), and △increase in import costs due to devaluation of the won (12.2%).

Companies that forecasted that exports in 2025 would decrease compared to this year responded that they are considering the following measures to cope with the export slump: △ diversifying export markets (47.6%), △ reducing costs such as operating expenses and labor costs (23.8%), and △ strengthening exchange rate risk management (15.9%).

Regarding the region where export conditions for Korean companies are expected to be the most difficult in 2025, most companies answered that it would be the United States (48.7%) or China (42.7%).

The Korea Economic Daily interpreted this as a reflection of companies' concerns that export conditions to the U.S. and China, Korea's major export markets, will worsen as the conflict between the U.S. and China deepens following the election of President Trump.

The government policy priorities for enhancing export competitiveness were as follows: stabilizing the foreign exchange market (31.5%), minimizing export damage due to increased protectionism (22.8%), tax support related to raw material imports (18.0%), stable supply measures for raw materials, etc. (11.4%), and support for developing new export markets (11.0%).

Lee Sang-ho, head of the Economic and Industrial Affairs Bureau of the Korea Economic Council, said, “With exports expected to slow down significantly next year due to the global economic slowdown and weakening competitiveness of key industries, export conditions could worsen further if the Trump administration actually imposes universal tariffs next year.” He added, “The government should focus on creating an environment to enhance export competitiveness, such as stabilizing the foreign exchange market and minimizing damage to exports due to increased protectionism. The National Assembly should focus on enhancing export vitality rather than enacting regulations that reduce corporate vitality.” He added, “We must make efforts to legislate for this.”