DRAM 산업은 2020년, 코로나19 확산에 따른 수요 부진으로 공급이 1.6% 과잉됐다. 2021년에는 PC 및 모바일 수요 개선과 서버 수요 회복으로 공급이 0.5% 부족해질 전망이다. NAND 산업 또한 수요 약세와 공급 증가로 2.1% 공급 과잉이 전개됐다. 2021년에도 NAND 업황은 업체 간 투자 확대와 캐파 증대로 공급 과잉이 3.8% 많아질 전망이다.
DRAM continues to be in short supply, NAND continues to be in oversupply
DRAM shortage, increased server demand pushes prices up
NAND with increased facility investment, price decline expected The DRAM industry experienced a 1.6% oversupply in 2020 due to weak demand caused by the spread of COVID-19. In 2021, supply is expected to be 0.5% short due to improved PC and mobile demand and recovery in server demand.
The NAND industry also experienced a 2.1% oversupply due to weak demand and increased supply. In 2021, the NAND industry is expected to see a 3.8% oversupply due to increased investment and capacity expansion among companies.

▲ DRAM and NAND supply and demand outlook
[Source=DRAMeXchange, Reprint=KSIA]
◇ 2021 DRAM supply +17%, demand +19% forecast In 2021, DRAM supply is expected to increase by 17% due to increased DRAM capacity (+6%) and process transition effects (+11%).
In the case of Samsung Electronics, it is planning to build a production facility with a monthly production capacity of 60,000 sheets (60K) on Line 2 in Pyeongtaek, but it is expected that capacity increase will be limited as it plans to convert Line 13 in Hwaseong into a CMOS image sensor (CIS) line. Meanwhile, the DRAM process is expected to transition from 1znm to 1anm, and the EUV process is expected to be introduced in earnest.
DRAM demand is expected to increase by 19% due to recovery in server demand. Server DRAM demand increased by 34% in 2020 and is expected to increase by 41% in 2021. In contrast, mobile DRAM demand is expected to increase by only 12% in 2021.
DRAM prices in 2021 are expected to rise 5% compared to 2020, and prices are expected to rise starting in the first quarter of 2021. The quarterly price fluctuation rate in 2021 is expected to be +2% in the first quarter, +7% in the second quarter, +10% in the third quarter, and +11% in the fourth quarter. The price increase is expected to be even greater due to the Micron power outage on the 3rd and the Taiwan earthquake on the 10th.
◇ 2021 NAND supply +36%, demand +34% forecast NAND supply in 2021 is expected to increase by 36% due to NAND capacity increase (+6%) and process migration and inventory utilization effects (+30%).
Samsung Electronics is expected to invest 70K in production facilities in Xi'an Line 2, and there is also a possibility of additional investment of 30K in Pyeongtaek Line 2, which is expected to expand supply growth. Kioxia is also expected to increase supply with plans to build a new facility in Yokkaichi.
In 2021, NAND demand is expected to grow by 34% annually, led by SSDs. SSD demand is expected to grow by 37% due to an increase in the number of SSDs installed in servers and PCs. In contrast, mobile NAND demand is expected to grow by only 29% in 2021.
NAND prices in 2021 are expected to fall 25% compared to 2020. The quarterly price fluctuation rate in 2021 is expected to continue the downward price trend, with -10% in the first quarter, -7% in the second quarter, -7% in the third quarter, and -5% in the fourth quarter.