반도체 산업은 롤러코스터처럼 상승·하락의 주기성을 띄고 있다. 2023년 반도체 전망은 한 목소리로 다운사이클을 외치고 있는 가운데 세미콘 코리아 2023에서 팹과 소부장 산업에 대한 전망을 밝혔다.
Average negative growth of 7%, small business owners also shrink
“2024, the year of economic recovery, 17.5% increase”
▲Cyclicality of the semiconductor market (Source: SEMI)
The semiconductor industry is a roller coaster of ups and downs. While the semiconductor outlook for 2023 is unanimously calling for a down cycle, Semicon Korea 2023 revealed its outlook for the fab and small-scale industries.
On the 3rd, a media briefing was held at SEMICON Korea 2023, the largest semiconductor industry exhibition in Korea hosted by the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI). On this day, Inna Skvortsova, market research analyst at SEMI, presented her outlook on the macro economy and the semiconductor industry.
Analyst Skvortsova said, “The semiconductor market outlook for 2023 is expected to be a negative growth of -7%, a decrease of 55 billion dollars compared to the previous year, on average.” “Some research institutes predict a 22% decrease in extreme outlooks, but conservative approaches such as Omdia, Gartner, and IC Insights predict a decrease of 0.2% to 5.8%.”
▲ Inna Skvortsova, SEMI Market Research Analyst, giving a media briefing at SEMICON Korea 2023
As the semiconductor industry's slump becomes a reality, the equipment market is also expected to decline. According to the SEMI Semiconductor Equipment Market Outlook, the overall semiconductor equipment market is expected to grow 5.9% in 2022 to $108.5 billion, but it is expected to fall 16% to $91.2 billion in 2023.
Wafer fab equipment (WFE), which accounts for the largest share of the equipment market, is expected to grow 8% in 2022 and decline 17% in 2023 to $78.8 billion. Specifically, the foundry and logic sectors, which are expected to account for more than 55% of the WFE market, are expected to decline by 9%, DRAM is expected to decline by 23% this year following a 10% decline last year, and NAND is also expected to decline by 4% and 36% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
In addition, the test and assembly/package markets are expected to decrease by 7.3% and 13%, respectively, and are expected to record a decline for the second consecutive year following last year. In particular, the assembly/package market is expected to fall by 13% this year following a 15% decrease last year, which is interpreted as a significant reflection of the uncertain market situation and economic outlook.
The materials market is also expected to fall by 6% this year to $41.2 billion. Silicon wafer sales, which exceeded $15 billion last year, fell to $14.2 billion, showing a downward trend.
▲SEMI 2022 Overall Semiconductor Equipment Market Outlook (Source: SEMI)
If there is a depression, an uptrend is waiting. SEMI forecasted 2024 as a year of recovery. The semiconductor equipment market is expected to grow again with the market recovery, rising 17.5% to $107.2 billion in 2024. A recovery is expected throughout the semiconductor supply chain, including materials, assembly, packaging, and testing.
Analyst Skvortsova said, “84 new fabs are being built worldwide, and in particular, the U.S. has started construction of 18 fabs in the past three years, an increase of more than 15 compared to the previous three years,” and predicted that domestic semiconductor investment will accelerate further due to the strengthening of semiconductor laws and export regulations against China in each country. Amid this trend, he said, “I see fabs being concentrated in some Asian countries.”
As the overall semiconductor capacity continues to increase, Taiwan is currently the market that consumes the most semiconductor materials among Asian countries. Korea is next, and China, which was previously below Japan, is expected to rise to become the third market in the future.