글로벌 전자 산업 공급망을 대표하는 산업 협회인 SEMI는 반도체 전문 조사 기관인 테크인사이츠와 함께 발행하는 반도체 제조 모니터링 보고서(Semiconductor Manufacturing Monitor Report)를 통해 2024년 1분기에 전자제품 판매 증가, 반도체 재고 안정화, 웨이퍼 팹 생산 능력 증가 등으로 인해 반도체 산업에 긍정적 시그널이 포착되고 있다고 밝혔으며, 산업의 성장세는 하반기에 더욱 가속화될 것이라고 예상했다.

▲IC sales trend
Electronics sales expected to increase 5%, IC sales to grow 21%
Wafer fab production capacity continues to increase, fab utilization rate also rises by 0.7%
“The semiconductor industry is showing strong growth in several indicators.”
SEMI, an industry association representing the global electronics industry supply chain, and TechInsights, a semiconductor research firm, released the Semiconductor Manufacturing Monitor Report in collaboration with the semiconductor research firm TechInsights, stating that positive signals are being detected in the semiconductor industry in the first quarter of 2024 due to increased electronics sales, stabilization of semiconductor inventory, and increased wafer fab production capacity, and predicted that the industry's growth will accelerate further in the second half.
Electronics sales are expected to increase 1% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2024, and 5% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2024.
IC revenue grew 22% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2024, and is expected to continue its strong growth at 21% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2024, driven by increased chip shipments for high-performance computing (HPC) and rising memory prices.
Additionally, IC inventory levels are expected to stabilize in the first quarter of 2024 and further improve in the second quarter.
The production capacity of wafer fabs continues to increase, increasing by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2024.It is expected to exceed 40 million wafers per day (based on 300mm wafer equivalents) and is expected to increase by 1.4% in the second quarter of this year.
China is recording the highest capacity growth in the world, but fab utilization rates, especially for mature nodes, are unlikely to recover until the first half of 2024.
Additionally, in the memory sector, the operating rate of memory fabs in the first quarter of 2024 was found to be lower than expected due to supply control for inventory adjustment.
Semiconductor capital spending remains conservative, driven by fab utilization trends. It is expected to decline 17% year-over-year in Q4 2023, continue to decline 11% year-over-year in Q1 2024, and then increase 0.7% year-over-year in Q2 2024.
On the other hand, capital expenditures in the memory sector are expected to increase by 8% from the first quarter starting in the second quarter of 2024, and the trend in semiconductor investment is expected to turn positive.
“Demand in the semiconductor sector is recovering, but the pace of recovery is uneven across sectors,” said Clark Tseng, senior director at SEMI. “Demand for AI chips and HBM is the highest, and accordingly, facility investment in this area is expected to continue,” he said. “Meanwhile, since there are only a few companies supplying AI semiconductors, the impact of AI semiconductors on the increase in overall IC shipments is somewhat limited.”
“Demand for semiconductors in the first half of 2024 for memory and logic semiconductors is expected to surge due to the rapid growth of generative AI,” said Boris Metodiev, director of TechInsight. “However, analog, discrete, and optoelectronic devices are expected to go through a period of adjustment due to the slow recovery of the consumer market and declining demand in areas such as automotive.”