In contrast to the growing sense of crisis in the domestic economy next year, the semiconductor industry is expected to remain favorable due to positive indicators and outlook for IT exports and domestic demand.

According to the '2025 Economic and Industrial Outlook' report by the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics & Trade, exports in the IT sector, including semiconductors, are expected to increase by 2.2% next year, driven by the recovery of the IT frontline industry, resulting in a trade surplus of $48.7 billion (approximately 68 trillion won in Korean currency).

The report anticipated that demand would recover due to the real estate recovery and infrastructure investment in the U.S. market, and forecasted that domestic semiconductors would continue to grow by 8.5% in 2025 due to a gradual increase in demand for IT devices resulting from improved domestic and international consumer sentiment and an increase in the proportion of high value-added products such as DDR5 and HBM.

Domestic demand in most industries increased slightly year-on-year due to improved consumer sentiment and the launch of new products.
It was expected that domestic demand for major IT industries, such as information and communication devices (4.3%) and semiconductors (17.3%), would increase.

We expect improved consumer sentiment and increased demand due to the launch of new products such as the Galaxy S25 and various AI PCs next year.It is predicted that domestic demand in major IT industries, such as information and communication devices (4.3%) and semiconductors (17.3%), will turn to an upward trend.

Facility investment has shown signs of breaking out of the slump that has continued since the second half of last year, thanks to the recovery of the IT industry centered on semiconductors and brisk exports. Facility investment in 2025 is expected to increase by 2.9%, higher than this year’s 1.2%, due to improved performance of major companies due to the brisk IT industry and interest rate cuts.

According to the results of a survey conducted by the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade targeting domestic manufacturers, the most common expectation was that companies would reduce their financing costs due to the domestic and international interest rate cuts. It was explained that the overall investment capacity is showing an upward trend as 50% of companies expect a reduction in financing costs.

However, due to concerns about the uncertainty of the business environment in 2026 and the perceived limitations of memory demand, companies are likely to take a conservative approach to actual facility investment execution. The report also added that "the possibility of intensifying trade friction between the US and China and rapid changes in the global trade environment are burdens for expanding facility investment."

The trend of expanding AI servers and data center infrastructure is still strong due to the expansion of generative AI services. Facility investment is growing rapidly in the AI server market. Accordingly, demand for high value-added memory such as HBM, DDR5, and PIM is expected to increase, and related facility investment is expected to continue to increase.

IT device exports are expected to increase by 8.4% year-on-year, especially in the SSD sector, due to the expansion of the AI PC market. SSD exports have increased significantly this year, and the expansion of parts exports to overseas production bases of domestic and foreign companies is expected to lead to an increase in parts exports, recording a high growth of 26.5% year-on-year. Vietnam is expected to see major demand for components in response to the growing demand for IT, it said.

As the domestic IT exports and domestic demand are expected to be affected by the Trump administration's future trade tariffs, the US-China stance, and domestic and international response directions, attention is being paid to whether this year's favorable business climate will continue.