As major fabless and chipmakers line up for TSMC's 3nm process, competition in the semiconductor industry surrounding 3nm is intensifying, with Intel, which is faltering due to delays in its mass production roadmap, and Apple, which will account for most of the 3nm process in 2023.

According to foreign media reports such as Digitimes, Intel's 15th generation Arrow Lake CPU roadmap has been delayed, and TSMC's 3nm process orders are also expected to be delayed.

According to Tom's Hardware, an American IT media outlet, Intel's 15th generation Arrow Lake processor was previously reported to be released in the third quarter of 2024, but a recent DigiTimes report, citing relevant sources, states that the product will be shipped in the fourth quarter of 2024, about a quarter later, and that product supply is expected to be sufficient starting in the first quarter of 2025.

Intel's roadmap had expected Arrow Lake to feature TSMC's 3nm-based iGPU tiles, but there are concerns that this delay could result in the company losing its 3nm leadership to Apple, AMD, and Qualcomm.

Apple has already become the first customer of TSMC's 3nm process, with the M2 Pro and M2 Max being manufactured using TSMC's cutting-edge 3nm process. The new MacBook Pro, which was mass-produced with chips based on the architecture, was unveiled in January. Apple announced that its performance is up to 80% faster than the Intel-based MacBook Pro and previous-generation products.

While Intel continues to falter due to continued roadmap delays, Apple is also said to have secured the entire N3 from TSMC for its upcoming A17Bionic and M3 SoCs.

According to American IT media wccftech, “TSMC has announced mass production of 3nm chips at its new Fab18 facility, and mass production of A17 Bionic and M3 is expected at this facility.” Earlier, DigiTimes also reported, citing supply chain news, that Apple has 100% of the N3 supply and that the yield is also high.

The cost of 3nm is known to be much higher than the existing 5nm process, at over $20,000. Among the customers who can afford the latest 3nm process, Apple is the most active in adopting it. Despite the high cost, it is expected to not have a big impact on Apple as it plans to use it for launching premium products.

On the other hand, foreign media reported that Qualcomm, MediaTek, etc. are not sure about producing 3nm chips in 2023 due to high prices, but they have no other choice if they are to compete in the latest product line.

Although Samsung Foundry unveiled its GAA-based 3nm process six months early, the market is judging that it has not yet achieved yield. Market players believe that TSMC's 3nm yield is over 50%, so large fabless and chipmakers are flocking to TSMC's 3nm process.

It is unclear whether TSMC was conscious of the high price, but production costs are expected to decrease somewhat in the next process. According to Tom's Hardware, there are also rumors that TSMC is preparing to lower its 3nm production estimates to accommodate cost-burdened global fabless suppliers, and they claim that "while the N3 pricing should be considered a rumor at this point, the production cost of the next N3E process is likely to be lower than the initial N3."

This is explained by the fact that TSMC's N3E process uses EUV only up to 19 layers, so the logic density is slightly lower than N3, but the manufacturing complexity is somewhat lower, and as a result, the cost of use is lower. N3E is expected to be TSMC's main cutting-edge foundry service before N3P, N3S, etc. are serviced.

In addition, AMD is also expected to introduce a 3nm process as it continues to reveal its roadmap to mass-produce the Zen5 architecture in 2024. Attention is being paid to what impact the delayed roadmap will have on the competition between the two processor rivals, Intel and AMD.

Meanwhile, TSMC estimated that it would create $1.5 trillion (about 200 trillion won) in value over five years through the 3nm process.