According to the report titled 'Automaker Response Strategies Amid Slowing BEV Demand' published by the Korea Automotive Technology Institute (KATECH) on the 4th, global battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales are showing continued growth.

According to KATECH, global BEV sales growth rate is expected to decline in 2021, while sales volume continues to increase, reaching approximately 10 million units in 2023.

Global BEV sales are expected to nearly double from 4.78 million units in 2021, up 115%, to 9.85 million units in 2023. Sales growth is expected to decline by half each year, to 62.6% in 2022 and 26.6% in 2023.

BEV sales growth has been declining recently due to a combination of factors, including economic slowdowns in major countries, cost burdens, reductions in subsidies in each country, and lack of infrastructure. Accordingly, there are observations that the global automobile industry is moving to adjust the speed of electrification, such as by lowering production volumes due to the EV chasm phenomenon.

KATECH forecasted that BEV sales will continue to increase due to the expansion of electric vehicle charging facilities, following major countries’ new car sales ban targets and long-term corporate investment expansion. This is interpreted as reflecting factors such as the governments’ carbon neutrality roadmaps and improvements in electric vehicle infrastructure, although some automakers have adjusted their production targets.

Despite the sluggish growth in BEV sales, the major automakers in Korea, China, and Japan are still maintaining and expanding their BEV-related investments. While Chinese companies are recording a decline in domestic market sales, their exports are continuing to increase to 1.58 million units as of 2023. In response, Western countries such as the U.S. and the EU are responding with a BEV tariff policy to aggressively pursue exports.

Japan is expanding its BEV investment centered on the North American market, and in Korea, Hyundai Motor Company is maintaining its existing investment policy and maintaining its long-term sales target despite the slowdown in demand. Accordingly, it is promoting the expansion of the BEV market centered on the Southeast Asian market.

U.S. automakers are focusing their investments on short-term profitability due to market and policy uncertainty. Some companies, including GM and Ford, have postponed their plans to produce large BEVs or readjusted their transition goals, while Tesla appears to have scaled back its investment plans due to poor performance.

However, Tesla is planning to expand into the Southeast Asian market, where the BEV market is rapidly expanding, while reducing its investment in BEV infrastructure in major countries, so Hyundai Motor Company appears to need to prepare.

European companies are showing mixed responses, with Volkswagen showing a two-track approach of short-term market adjustment and market expansion preparation through delays in the launch of BEVs for some models and investments in Mexican factories. BMW appears to be actively investing in BEVs, while Mercedes-Benz has expanded its investment in internal combustion engines and readjusted its electrification goals, but has also invested in China and the development of solid-state batteries.

KATECH points out that different approaches to BEV transition by automakers should be taken into account in terms of structural changes that will be brought about in the future automobile industry ecosystem, and attention is being paid to how the future electric vehicle landscape will be formed.