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[IT 인사이트] “Semiconductors to grow by double digits by 2025”

기사입력2025.02.24 10:12


▲Gaurav Gupta, Vice President of Gartner, is giving a presentation at the SEMICON Korea 2025 press conference held on February 19.

Surpassing $800 billion by 2027, driving growth in autonomous driving and electric vehicles
China's semiconductor investment expected to peak in 2024 and gradually decline

“The semiconductor market will grow by double digits in 2025. In addition, the autonomous driving and electric vehicle markets will expand, leading to significant growth over the next 10 years.”

Gaurav Gupta, Vice President of Gartner, said at the SEMICON Korea 2025 press conference held on February 19 that the semiconductor industry will continue to grow.

Gaurav Gupta, vice president at Gartner, said the semiconductor industry, which experienced a revenue decline of about 12% in 2020, recovered over the next two years and is expected to continue its positive growth in 2024 and 2025.

The semiconductor industry is expected to exceed $700 billion in 2025 and $800 billion in 2027.

Key growth factors include strong sales growth in non-memory semiconductors and server and accelerator cards.

In particular, AI semiconductors and automobiles are acting as major growth engines. The expansion of the autonomous vehicle and electric vehicle markets is expected to lead to significant growth over the next 10 years.

Regarding semiconductor inventory, while inventory generally decreases in the fourth quarter, inventory increased in the fourth quarter of 2024 due to decreased demand, and there were inventory issues in industrial and automotive electronics, but it is expected to recover in the future.

In Korea's important memory semiconductor market, both DRAM and NAND are expected to show strong growth in 2024.

In the case of DRAM, the proportion of HBM (high bandwidth memory) is increasing and it is expected to account for about 30% of total DRAM sales in 2028.

NAND is expected to see price fluctuations due to continued production increases in China.

Semiconductor manufacturers are expected to see a decline in capital spending in 2023, but it is expected to recover starting in 2024.

In particular, it was analyzed that cutting-edge wafer supply and advanced packaging technology will act as major growth drivers, and in the long term, increased wafer shipments will lead to sales growth.

China has seen significant growth in wafer fab equipment purchases in recent years.

Chinese investment is expected to surge through 2023 and 2024, peaking in 2024 and then gradually declining.

On the other hand, as the growth of semiconductor equipment companies in China is remarkable, it was analyzed that multinational companies are likely to lose market share in the Chinese market.

Gaurav Gupta, Vice President of Gartner, said, “AI technology will be the main growth engine for the global semiconductor industry, and new technologies such as autonomous vehicles and robots will also drive the growth of the industry.” “Despite this growth outlook, the trend toward self-sufficiency and geopolitical uncertainty within the semiconductor ecosystem are factors to watch.rdquo; advised.

▲Semiconductor market growth outlook