As AI-based infrastructure begins to be fully built, demand for high-bandwidth memory has skyrocketed. While demand for HBM in the B2B market is booming, demand for B2C general devices remains uncertain, and conservative investment sentiment is still observed in DRAM and NAND flash.

According to global market research firm TrendForce, it recently predicted that the proportion and market value of HBM production capacity will increase significantly.

Avril Wu, Senior Research Vice President of TrendForce, analyzed that the HBM market has reached growth momentum due to price premiums and increasing capacity requirements for AI semiconductors. The unit price of HBM is said to be about five times higher than that of general DDR5.

HBM's share of all DRAMs was only about 2% in bit terms in 2023, but it increased to 5% this year and is expected to exceed 10% in 2025.

Since HBM carries a premium, its market value will increase. HBM's share of total DRAM market sales is expected to increase to 21% this year, 2024, and exceed 30% by 2025.
Against this backdrop of high growth rates, it is pointed out that HBM price negotiations for 2025 have already begun in the second quarter, and it is reported that memory suppliers have raised prices by 5-10% in advance to manage the shortage of capacity in the HBM leading-edge process due to the overall DRAM capacity limitation.

In addition, it was reported that the TSV yield in the current HBM3e is below 60%, and if yield improvement is secured after 2025 when the process matures, it could lead to margin improvement and ASP increase due to shipment of high-quality and high-reliability products.

According to TrendForce forecasts, the annual growth rate of HBM demand is expected to approach 200% in 2024, and a slightly slower 100% increase in 2025.

Unlike the booming HBM market, the winds of uncertainty are still blowing in DRAM and NAND flash. Demand recovery for notebooks and smartphones targeting major markets has been slow, leading to increased inventory levels, particularly among PC OEMs.

TrendForce noted that capex in non-HBM wafer capacity is being conservative due to uncertainties surrounding the recovery in consumer product demand, and it expects capital investment to remain conservative, especially in NAND flash, which has seen an increase in ASP but is still at the break-even point.

As HBM3e is expected to be supplied in the third quarter, related production volumes are expected to expand significantly, and as a result, DDR5 supply is expected to shrink significantly.

Meanwhile, as demand for AI semiconductors increases, the market for advanced packaging technologies that cover the limitations of fine processes is gaining strength. The '2024 e4ds Semiconductor Packaging Day' , which will announce the latest advanced packaging technology trends that cross hybrid bonding and memory and logic semiconductors, is scheduled to be held at the Korea Conference Center on May 28.