Looking at the semiconductor market growth trajectory relative to global GDP growth, semiconductor market growth has been proportional to GDP growth since 2006, but since 2015, while GDP has shown stability, the exponentially growing semiconductor market experienced the largest decline with a variance of 23.1% in 2019.

Can the 2020 semiconductor market reduce this variance?


[ Market Overview ]

• Reasons for Semiconductor Market Decline
  > Hoarding has occurred due to the US-China trade dispute, with global economic slowdown being a major factor
  > As a result, TSMC – growth, Foundry growth is -1~2% decline

• Memory Semiconductors
  > The semiconductor market is forming larger cycles than economic growth rates
  > Other semiconductor fields excluding memory semiconductors are maintaining stable status quo
  > Memory semiconductors show good prospects in the PC sector this year, but growth decline is a concern next year
  > The memory semiconductor market undergoes repeated cycles at 4-5 year intervals according to technology-driven investments and corresponding demand changes

[Forecasting the Semiconductor Market by Year]

• 2018
  > Top 20 company market share: approximately 76.4%
  > Top 10 company market share: approximately 61.6%
  
  Notable point: Samsung Electronics maintained the top position in 2018, but in 2019, Intel's 5% growth caused Intel to move to 1st place and Samsung to 2nd place in rankings. Overall server product lines showed 16% growth compared to the previous year

• 2019 Growth, Decline, and Stable Sector Analysis
  > Growth sectors: Automotive Market, Industrial Market, Wireless Market, Logic Market, System IC Market
  > Declining sectors: Computing Market, Memory Market
  > Stable sectors: LSI Market

▲ Semiconductor Application Forecaster – Forecast Update, IDC July 2019

• 2020 Large-scale growth following 2019 is difficult due to Cloud, Edge, Sub-6GHz 5G, and mass production of 5nm process by TSMC and Samsung is expected in the first half

• 2021 With rapid growth in semiconductor process technology, competition between TSMC and Samsung in 3nm process technology is expected

• 2022 The memory semiconductor market is expected to reach its bottom and resume growth

[ Key Points ]

• Semiconductor Market: CAGR of 4%, expected to reach $500 billion by 2023
• Memory Cycle: Based on current revenue assumptions, 2020 is the timeframe, but in practice it is expected to extend through the first half of 2021
• Particularly, revenue correction comes faster for DRAM, which will end much sooner, while NAND may take somewhat longer
• Semiconductor manufacturers are expected to begin equipment investments in the second half of next year

[ Conclusion ]

• The global semiconductor market, which had frozen due to the US-China trade dispute and Japanese export restrictions, is expected to remain sluggish through next year but resume growth from 2021 onwards, experiencing a boom through 2023
• While there has been no significant technological change in the existing automotive market, with semiconductors now being integrated into vehicles, the Automotive market is experiencing substantial growth
• As a result, major changes in automotive electrification, connected cars, autonomous driving, and vehicle sharing are occurring, and the Automotive market is expected to expand further