| PC market decline continues, mobile phone market growth recovers
| Windows 10 for Enterprises Moves to the Next Stage
Foldable phones are expected to capture 5% of the high-end mobile phone market by 2023.

Gartner announced its 2019 global device shipment forecast.

According to forecasts, global shipments of devices, including PCs, tablets, and mobile phones, are expected to reach 2.21 billion units in 2019, similar to last year. While the PC market continues its decline, the mobile phone market is expected to recover growth in 2020.


The PC market continues to decline, with less than a year remaining until the end of Windows 7 support.
According to Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner, the PC market has been stagnant for eight consecutive years. PC shipments are projected to reach 258 million units in 2019, a 0.6% decline from 2018.
Traditional PC shipments are projected to reach 189 million units in 2019, a 3% year-over-year decline. With more and more consumers holding onto older PCs, PC shipments are projected to decline by approximately 6 million units in 2019.

For businesses, the Windows 10 version rollout is moving to the next phase. The United States is currently in the final stages, while other countries, including China and Japan, have postponed the rollout. If businesses delay upgrading to Windows 10 until 2020, they risk being stuck with an unsupported operating system. Support for Windows 7 is scheduled to end in January 2020.

Gartner researchers predict that by 2021, Windows 10 will account for 75% of the professional PC market.


The mobile phone market is expected to grow in 2020 after a slump in 2019.
Mobile phone shipments in 2019 are estimated to reach 1.8 billion units, a 0.5% decrease from the previous year.

"Users have reached a critical mass for new technologies and applications," said Roberta Cozza, research director at Gartner. "Unless a new model offers a radically different level of usability, efficiency, or experience, they won't want or need to upgrade." Consequently, the saturated high-end mobile phone market is expected to continue its decline in 2019.

The mobile phone market is expected to return to growth in 2020, with shipments expected to increase by 1.2% compared to 2019. Nevertheless, manufacturers must recognize that consumers' mobile phone replacement cycles are increasing. Gartner predicts that the average lifespan of high-end phones will increase from 2.6 years to 2.8 years by 2023.


Foldable phones are unlikely to become more than niche products without innovation.
At the recent MWC19 in Barcelona, many mobile phone manufacturers unveiled foldable phones, many of which are expected to be released by the end of 2019.

Gartner predicts that foldable phones will bring another wave of innovation to the smartphone market, but it also said there are still doubts about their durability and stability. It also predicted that by 2023, foldable smartphones will account for 5% of the high-end mobile phone market, reaching approximately 30 million units.

“Users will likely use their foldable phones like regular smartphones, holding them in their hands several times a day, unfolding them frequently and typing on the plastic screen, which could lead to scratches more quickly depending on how the screen folds,” said Roberta Cozza, senior research scientist.

He continued, “For the next five years, foldable phones are expected to remain niche products due to several challenges,” adding, “The screen surface is a problem, and the price is also a big barrier.”

Foldable phones, which currently have an average selling price of $2,000, have a lot of drawbacks, and even early adopters are finding them problematic.

We expect manufacturers to experiment with a wider range of foldable phone form factors in the short term, with the goal of identifying optimal usage patterns and user preferences.

“The most important thing product managers should consider is to prioritize usability when developing their products,” said Roberta Cozza, senior research scientist. “They need to provide a consistent and seamless user experience across all foldable screens.”