PC DRAM contract prices expected to fall up to 5% in the fourth quarter.
Published2021.08.11 10:12
▲PC DRAM contract price fluctuations from Q1 to Q4 2021 (Source: TrendForce)
Contract prices for PC DRAM in the fourth quarter of 2021 are expected to decline due to weak demand and high inventory levels.
TrendForce released its PC DRAM outlook for the fourth quarter of 2021 on the 10th. According to this, a decline of 0-5% is expected in the fourth quarter of 2021.
According to TrendForce, with most of the PC DRAM contract price negotiations concluded in the third quarter of 2021, the PC DRAM contract price in the third quarter rose 3-8% quarter-on-quarter due to low inventory at DRAM suppliers and the arrival of the peak DRAM procurement season. However, as DRAM suppliers continued to cut prices to adjust DRAM inventory, PC DRAM demand in the spot market began to show signs of weakness from early July.
Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently hold relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they have stockpiled PC DRAM in anticipation of future supply shortages.
High DRAM inventories at PC OEMs not only put downward pressure on the possibility of PC DRAM price increases, but the gradual lifting of COVID-19-related restrictions in Europe and the US could also reduce overall demand for notebook computers, potentially reducing overall demand.
Regarding DRAM module spot prices, most major module suppliers have also started lowering prices to reduce inventory, leading to a continued downward trend in PC DRAM module spot prices throughout August.
According to TrendForce's research, the spot price decline of mainstream PC DRAM modules, which began on May 20, has accumulated to 32% as of August 3.
Additionally, the spot price of PC DRAM modules fell for the first time in 2021, dropping nearly 20% compared to the contract price in the third quarter of 2021, and the possibility of a price increase in the short term appears low.
In addition, PC DRAM inventory at PC OEMs remains high, and future PC DRAM procurement activities are expected to be sluggish.
Also, consumer DRAM and graphics DRAM prices in the fourth quarter of 2021 It is expected to enter a downward trend due to weakening supply and demand.
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