The global smartphone market is projected to grow by 2% in 2025, reaching its highest level since 2021, but 2026 will be a challenging year due to memory supply shortages and the burden of rising prices.

Global market research firm Omdia announced on the 29th that global smartphone shipments in 2025 are projected to reach 1.25 billion units, a 2% increase from the previous year, marking the highest level since 2021.

The simultaneous expansion of upgrade and replacement demand led to a market recovery, and growth was observed in most regions.

However, mainland China saw a slight decrease as the effect of state subsidies, which had boosted performance in early 2025, weakened.

The global smartphone market grew 4% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by the seasonal peak and strong performance from major manufacturers.

On the other hand, as prices of key components such as semiconductors and memory rise towards the end of the year, this is acting as a burden on the shipment forecast for early 2026.

By company, Apple maintained its position as the global leader for the third consecutive year, recording an all-time high with 240.6 million iPhone shipments in 2025, a 7% increase.

In particular, in the fourth quarter, it achieved the highest quarterly shipment volume, and in the Chinese market, driven by demand for the iPhone 17 series It showed a high growth rate of 26%.

Samsung Electronics broke its three-year downward trend and grew by 7%, closely chasing Apple.

Shipments in the fourth quarter increased by 16%, and the company recovered market share in the entry-level and mid-range lineups along with stable demand for the Galaxy S and Z series.

Xiaomi maintained its third-place ranking in 2025, but its annual shipments decreased by 2% due to a slowdown in the budget market.

Vivo rose to fourth place for the first time, driven by growth in the Indian market, while OPPO ranked fifth, shipping 100.7 million units by 2025.

Realme is expected to become a variable in future ranking competition as it comes under Oppo's umbrella starting in 2026.

Even outside the top five, companies such as Honor, Lenovo, Huawei, and Nothing recorded double-digit growth rates through regional expansion and differentiation strategies.

In particular, Huawei reclaimed the top spot in the Chinese market for the first time in five years.

Omdia analyzed that pressure on memory semiconductor supply is emerging as the biggest variable in the smartphone market ahead of 2026.

Rising DRAM and NAND prices could burden both manufacturers' profitability and consumer demand, leading to the forecast that the future market is highly likely to be restructured around profitability-oriented strategies rather than growth-oriented ones.