Gartner forecasts device shipments to fall 1% in 2015 due to sluggish replacement demand

Gartner, Inc., a global IT advisory firm, projected that total worldwide device shipments (PCs, tablets, ultramobiles, and mobile phones) would reach 2.4 billion units in 2015. Contrary to expectations of a 1.5% increase compared to the previous year in the last quarter, shipments actually decreased by 1% (see Table 1).


▲ A Samsung Electronics model is introducing tablets and cameras at the Samsung Delight Duty-Free store in Seocho-dong.
Samsung Electronics, at the 'Korea Grand Sale' taking place across South Korea from August 14 to October 31
Actively participating, generous free gifts are being presented to foreign tourists at duty-free shops and Samsung Digital Plaza duty-free stores.

"Demand for replacing all types of devices has decreased," said Ranjit Atwal, a principal research analyst at Gartner. "Users are giving up on replacing devices or deciding to use them for longer."

According to a recent device forecast released by Gartner, total device shipments are expected to decline in 2015, with only the mobile phone sector projected to grow by 1.4%. Smartphone shipments are expected to increase by 14% this year. In particular, emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region, including India and Indonesia, are projected to record the highest growth rate of 43% this year, while China is expected to grow by 3%.


▲ Table 1. Global shipments by device type, 2014–2017 (Unit: million units, Source: Gartner (September 2015))
Note: The Ultramobile (Premium) group includes devices such as Microsoft Windows 8 Intel x86 products and the Apple MacBook Air. The Ultramobile (Tablet, Clamshell) group includes devices such as the iPad, iPad Mini, Samsung Galaxy Tab S 10.5, Nexus 7, Acer Iconia Tab 8, HP Pavilion 11, Lenovo Yoga 2 11, and Dell Inspiron 13.


Annette Zimmermann, a principal research analyst at Gartner, said, “Mobile phone shipments are expected to reach 2 billion units by 2017, with smartphones accounting for 89% of the total market.”

The global PC market size in 2015 was 291 million units, down 7.3% from the previous year, and is expected to remain at the same level in 2016.

"Ranjit Atwal, a lead researcher, said, 'It appears that corporate demand for premium ultra-mobile and laptop replacements will slow down by the end of 2015 due to rising prices resulting from the depreciation of the currency.'" He went on to explain, “In 2016, the impact of exchange rates will disappear, and we expect the volume of Windows 10 products based on the Intel Skylake platform to increase. In 2017, the number of companies adopting Windows 10 is expected to increase significantly, and the global PC market is projected to recover a growth rate of 4%.”


▲ Table 2. Device replacement plans. Source: Gartner (September 2015)

The ultra-mobile segment (tablets and clamshells) is also showing a downward trend this year. Total shipments of ultra-mobile and tablets in 2015 are expected to record 199 million and 192 million units, respectively, a decrease of 12% and 13% compared to the previous year.

"Pressure on the tablet market is growing," said Annette Zimmermann, a principal researcher. "There is no increase in device replacements among people using tablets with screen sizes between 7 and 8 inches."

According to a new user survey conducted by Gartner in June of this year across six countries, 44% of existing tablet users indicated an intention to switch to a different device. Among laptop users, 54% preferred a different device, and laptop users showed the highest percentage of those who had not yet decided which device to switch to (see Table 2).