Gartner predicted that global shipments of PCs, tablets, and smartphones in 2018 would reach 2.35 billion units, a 2% increase from the previous year.

“According to a recent end-user survey, PC and tablet usage is just as high as smartphone usage,” explained Ranjit Atwal, a principal research analyst at Gartner. “40% of respondents said they use PCs or tablets for specific tasks such as sending and receiving emails or watching videos, while 34% said they use smartphones because they are convenient to use while on the go.”

Atwal also added, “While the PC market struggles due to long product replacement cycles, the smartphone replacement cycle is relatively fast.”

Accordingly, general PC shipments are projected to fall by 4.4% in 2018, while mobile phone shipments are predicted to rise by 2.4%.

Business PC shipments are expected to rebound significantly by the end of 2017 as the transition to Windows 10 accelerates in many regions, including Western Europe. Atwal said, “Despite price hikes due to rising component costs, the PC market in 2017 remained relatively stable thanks to the transition to Windows 10,” adding, “The PC market, including desktops, laptops, and ultra-mobile devices, is expected to grow by 0.8% in 2018.”

There are two driving factors behind this PC market growth outlook. First is the growth of the Russian PC market. Driven by a strong economy, business PC sales grew by approximately 5% this year, and this growth trend is expected to continue in 2018. Sales of desktop PCs, which are priced higher than mobile PCs or hybrid devices, showed the strongest performance.

The second is the Chinese market. PC sales in China were sluggish in 2017 due to delays in the distribution of Windows 10 caused by security and privacy issues. However, performance is expected to improve in the future as Microsoft is developing a government-approved version in cooperation with the Chinese government.

Atwal predicted, “The features of Windows 10 could be quite useful to the Chinese government, which is seeking to transition from desktops and laptops to ultra-mobile premium devices. This development between Microsoft and the Chinese government will have a positive effect on the PC market next year.”

Mobile phone sales are expected to rebound in 2018 compared to the previous year, with 1.9 billion units shipped. Smartphones accounted for 86% of total mobile phone shipments in 2018, an increase of 6% from the previous year.

Consequently, despite its high price, the Apple iPhone X is expected to be a leading factor in mobile phone sales in the North American, Chinese, and Western European markets. “Given that the iPhone X is launching in late November, the iPhone replacement boom will continue strongly into 2018,” said Gartner principal research analyst Roberta Cozza.

Furthermore, component shortages could hinder meeting smartphone demand in the fourth quarter of 2017, potentially leading to increased sales in 2018. Researcher Koza stated, "The decline in total mobile phone demand this year appears to stem from the weakness in the smartphone market," adding, "Local vendors in this sector continue to struggle against leading brands, and rising component prices could intensify price competition among some Android vendors." As this is expected to be a limiting factor for smartphone market growth in 2017, the growth rate for 2018 is projected to be higher than previously anticipated.