Domestic mobile traffic to surge more than tenfold over the next six years
It will reach 3.2 exabytes by the end of 2023.

The Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute (ETRI) announced the current status of mobile traffic as a representative indicator of mobile telecommunications market growth.

This document examines domestic mobile communication subscribers, traffic trends, and traffic status by user characteristics, and introduces forecasts for mobile communication subscribers and mobile communication traffic for the next six years through 2023.

As of the third quarter of 2017, the mobile phone penetration rate in Korea exceeded 122% relative to the population. The subscription rate for 4th generation mobile communication (4G) is around 78%. Mobile communication data traffic is 305 petabytes (PB), with 4G accounting for the majority at 99.6%.

We have already experienced changes in lifestyle through 4G data services. As a result, acceptance of innovative 5th generation mobile communication (5G) services that reflect various requirements is also expected to be high.

According to the results of this study, domestic mobile communication traffic is projected to surge tenfold over the next six years, reaching 3.2 exabytes (EB) by the end of 2023.

Among them, ETRI estimated that the 5G system will increase to 2.8 exabytes (EB) by the end of 2023, as the proportion of high-definition video applications such as Full HD (FHD), 4K, and 8K is expected to rise as the market grows. It is now evident that mobile communications must prepare to enter the exabyte (EB) era.

To accommodate the rapid increase in traffic, there is a growing need for the development of technologies to increase wireless network capacity and the supply of additional frequencies. In order to increase the insufficient wireless network capacity in the bands below 3 GHz, 4G has utilized spatial cell division as well as Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO), Carrier Aggregation, and QAM to improve frequency efficiency.

Nevertheless, when the frequency saturation capacity accommodating traffic reaches its limit, mobile communication services face Quality of Service (QoS) issues such as transmission delays, dropped calls, and the inability to watch videos.

Fortunately, 5G technical standards are nearing completion, and the supply of new frequency bands is becoming visible. As a result, it appears that South Korea will be the first in the world to embrace the 5G paradigm shift following the smartphone era, including virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR), while simultaneously maintaining seamless 4G services.

Park Seung-geun, Project Leader (PL) of the Radio Resource Research Group at ETRI, stated, “Starting with this mobile traffic forecast, if annual traffic forecast reports become regular, it is expected to help establish mid-to-long-term strategies such as mobile communication technology development, frequency allocation plans, and the timing and volume of 5G frequency supply.”

Furthermore, it is expected that once traffic forecasting suitable for the domestic mobile communication service and market environment is systematized, it will be possible to establish more objective and efficient radio wave policies in conjunction with the supply and demand of mobile communication frequencies.