As the technological gap between memory semiconductor companies narrows, the difference in profit margins also decreases, and large-scale investment increases, which are often referred to as a chicken game, are expected to become more difficult. Accordingly, it is predicted that the increase in memory prices will expand in the second half of the year due to the favorable business conditions.

e4ds news held the 'e4ds Semiconductor Technology Conference 2021 Spring' through an online webinar on the 28th.

Do Hyun-woo, a research fellow at NH Investment & Securities who participated in the conference that day, looked into recent semiconductor industry issues under the topic of "Micron's technological prowess that surpassed Samsung Electronics" and forecasted the semiconductor market in the second half of the year.

At this event, Commissioner Do Hyeon-woo said that the technological gap between the three companies, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron, has narrowed significantly, which is positive for the supply and demand of memory, and predicted that the price increase of other memory products will expand as the business environment continues to be favorable in the second half of the year.

The reason for this was attributed to Micron's increased technological capabilities.

Micron announced a 176-layer 3DFollowing the announcement of NAND development, the company developed the world's first 1αnm DRAM in January of this year. In particular, it was announced at the time of actual mass production rather than at the previous research institute level, and it showed a clear difference from the past as the number of chips produced per wafer increased by 40% compared to 1znm.

In particular, Micron, unaware of its competitors, judged that multi-patterning using existing ArF exposure equipment up to 1βnm without using EUV equipment was a more efficient method, eliminating the need for large-scale investment in EUV equipment and increasing the utilization of existing equipment, which was advantageous for rapid new product development.

While competitors have not yet completed the development of 1αnm DRAM, Micron's 1αnm DRAM is expected to be sampled to customers in the first half of the year and shipped in earnest in the second half of the year.

This rise in Micron's technological prowess has narrowed the technological gap between it and companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. This narrowing of the technological gap has created an environment where it is difficult for leading companies to employ aggressive investment strategies, such as the "chicken game" strategy of the past. This has narrowed the gap in profit rates between companies, and it is expected that the investment scale for NAND capacity, as well as DRAM, will fall short of expectations.

In particular, the profit margin gap in DRAM is already less than 10 percentage points, and in the case of NAND, the profit margin gap is likely to narrow if latecomers mass-produce next-generation products with 170 layers or more first.

Accordingly, a turnaround in the NAND market is expected following DRAM, and the increase in memory prices is also expected to expand as demand increases in the second half of the year.

Regarding China's semiconductor boom, Commissioner Do Hyeon-woo stated that the Chinese government is filtering out insolvent companies and focusing on promising ones, so we must continue to pay attention to the Chinese market.

In addition, compound semiconductors manufactured using wide bandgap materials such as GaN and SiC can withstand voltages more than 10 times higher than existing silicon semiconductor-based semiconductors, making them suitable for IT device chargers, 5G, industrial equipment, and electric vehicles., solar energy, etc., and is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 22% to reach $5.1 billion by 2029.

Commissioner Do Hyeon-woo predicted that the market growth will increase in the future, saying that smartphone manufacturers such as Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo have started to install GaN transistors in their chargers, and that large IT and automobile companies have started to use compound semiconductors, such as Hyundai Motors applying SiC semiconductors to E-GMP.