▲ DRAM price comparison chart for Q1 and Q2 2022 (Source: TrendForce)


An average decline of 0-5% is expected.
The impact of the war in Russia and Ukraine

DRAM prices are expected to decline in the second quarter of 2022 due to the war in Russia and Ukraine, as well as inflation.

TrendForce announced on the 28th that it expects DRAM prices to fall by 0-5% in the second quarter of 2022.

The war between Russia and Ukraine and high inflation have affected consumer purchasing power, leading to a slowdown in the number of buyers, while inventory of products such as PCs, laptops and smartphones remains sufficient.

For PC DRAM, the war in Russia and Ukraine could impact the peak season in the second quarter, leading PC OEMs to stockpile inventory and lower their 2022 shipment forecasts. These factors have led to speculation that the decline in PC DRAM prices could extend to 3-8%, potentially worsening the situation.

Server DRAM inventory held by cloud service providers and their customers is similar to the first quarter of 2022. Supply is expected to remain robust in the second quarter, as it was in the first quarter, with prices expected to decline by 0-5%.

For mobile DRAM, factors such as high inflation, the COVID-19 pandemic, and war could lead to a decline in smartphone production. Therefore, TrendForce predicts that smartphone companies will adopt a cautious approach to production. With no significant issues with the average memory capacity of smartphone devices, mobile DRAM prices are expected to decline by 0-5%.

Demand for graphic DRAM has recently begun to ease due to the weak cryptocurrency prices, but Micron's planned discontinuation of GDDR6 8Gb supply in the second quarter of 2022 could lead to supply constraints and supplier shortages. If domestic manufacturers fail to meet Micron's quota, a temporary supply-demand imbalance in graphic DRAM could occur. Even if demand declines, given that GDDR6 8Gb is currently the mainstream in the market, it will likely take time for manufacturers to transition to 16Gb specifications. Graphics DRAM prices are expected to rise by 0-5% in the second quarter of 2022.

Consumer DRAM demand remains strong for DDR3, particularly for certain products such as WiFi 6 and 5G base stations. Manufacturers are adjusting their DDR3 production. Samsung and SK Hynix are reducing production, while Taiwan's Nanya Tech has increased production following strong profits from DDR3. While demand for DDR3 remains stable, shipment limitations from domestic manufacturers are expected to drive prices up by 3-8% in the second quarter of 2022, while DDR4 is expected to continue its downward trend.