As the semiconductor industry, with its 0% performance bonus, suggests, the manufacturing industry has been in crisis this year, but the November industrial indicators looking ahead to 2024 show a hopeful recovery.

The Ministry of Strategy and Finance (MOSF) announced the industrial activity trends for November on the 28th. Production across all industries rose 0.5%, a slight increase from the 1.8% decline recorded last month, suggesting an economic recovery trend.

Looking at the industrial activity trends in November 2023, in terms of production, the service industry showed a decrease of -0.1%, the construction industry -4.1%, and the public administration -0.9%, while the mining and manufacturing industry showed a significant increase of 3.3%, leading to an increase of 0.5% in overall industrial production.

According to the Ministry of Strategy and Finance, “Although there was a temporary adjustment in industrial activity in October, it improved in November, centered on mining and manufacturing, reaffirming the trend of economic recovery centered on manufacturing production and exports.” “In particular, mining and manufacturing production increased year-on-year for three consecutive months (5.3% in November, the highest in 18 months), suggesting a manufacturing-centered economic recovery in the fourth quarter along with the improving export trend.”

Semiconductor inventories have been declining for three consecutive months, with shipments increasing at a greater rate than production. This marks the third consecutive month of inventory decline, the first in 13 months since August-October 2022.

In addition, he stressed that although there are signs of a slight easing in domestic demand conditions, which had been constrained, such as improvements in retail sales and a rebound in the consumer sentiment index, there are still differences in the pace of recovery across sectors, and caution should be taken regarding the gap between indicators and perceived economic conditions.

On the production side, there are positive factors such as the recent improvement in exports, the recovery of key industries such as semiconductors, and the stabilization of international oil prices. However, the analysis shows that uncertainties about the economic recovery of major countries, geopolitical instability, and supply chain risks are acting as downward factors.

Accordingly, the government announced that it will thoroughly manage potential risks such as real estate PF, household debt, and supply chain stability risks and make every effort to respond, while further accelerating efforts to revitalize people's livelihoods and domestic demand, focusing on vulnerable sectors, so that the warmth of the economic recovery, which is centered on exports, can spread to all sectors.