Super Micro Computer (SMCI, hereinafter referred to as Supermicro) filed its delayed 2024 Annual Report 10-K and its 2025 Q1 and Q2 Report 10-Q with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on the 25th (local time).

Supermicro's delisting crisis is expected to come to an end as the company meets the February 25 deadline for filing an extension of its report.

Accordingly, Supermicro's stock price, which closed at -11% on the 25th, showed signs of recovery, soaring to 10% in after-hours trading.

The experts' target stock price is currently in the range of $15 to $93, and this significant difference is interpreted as a gap between pessimism and optimism based on the negative news of delisting and the $40 billion guidance for 2026.

Earnings per share (EPS) for fiscal quarter 2025 are expected to average $2.60, with experts estimating downward guidance. The sales guidance for 2025 is $23.5-25 billion, and the combined average of the net profit margin for the first and second quarters and the expected net profit margin for the third and fourth quarters results in a projected net profit margin of 6.675% for 2025.

Based on this, the expected earnings per share are in the range of $2.65 to $2.81. When converted to PER, this represents a PER of 19.6 to 20.8 times based on a stock price of $55, which is the same PER level as its competitor, Dell.

CEO Charles Liang made headlines in February when he announced $40 billion in sales guidance for 2026 during an earnings call. If we calculate EPS and PER based on this, assuming that the net profit margin does not improve, EPS will be approximately $4.51 based on a net profit margin of 6.675%. This is nearly double the net profit in 2025, and the PER will be 12.2 times based on the current stock price of $55.

While investors are optimistic about its growth potential, there are still many challenges surrounding Supermicro, including an SEC investigation and potential fines, capital raising and AI oversupply issues, and whether the company can meet its performance targets. Therefore, it is worth keeping a close eye on its future progress.

Supermicro's stock price, which reflects future value, can be analyzed as undervalued, but the intensifying competition in the future AI supply chain and the uncertainty in controlling internal accounting issues still remain as uncertainties for Supermicro.

Supermicro, which is aiming for a rebound, is expected to see Nvidia's earnings announcement on the 26th (local time) affect the short-term stock price trend.

Wall Street expects Nvidia's fiscal fourth quarter 2025 revenue (November 2024 to January 2025) to reach $38 billion. This is at the upper end of the sales guidance of $36.8 billion to $38.3 billion, reflecting the high expectations of Wall Street experts.

Also, the US Key Bank raised its target stock price from $180 to $190, adding another vote to the performance improvement, expecting the first quarter of 2026 guidance to be slightly exceeded. It is reported that the current market expectation for the first quarter guidance is around $42 billion.

Nvidia fell for three consecutive trading days, closing at $126 on the 25th. Investors expect that if it meets the market's high expectations, it will be able to overcome the anxiety in the AI market and even aim for a rebound.

Meanwhile, as NVIDIA's good performance has a direct and indirect impact on the overall market expansion of server suppliers such as Supermicro, it is worth paying attention to whether the good news from both companies will have a short- to mid-term synergy effect on their stock prices.

(This article does not constitute investment advice for the company in question, and investors are responsible for their investment decisions and results.)